I did wonder whether I should, over the weekend, write about the prospect of peace between the USA, Israel and Iran, and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. I decided to back off. The reason was quite simple. I did not trust the news reports coming from the USA that suggested that this possibility was real.
Iran appeared not to confirm it.
Israel appeared too determined to continue the war in Lebanon, and has, in fact, been intensifying its attacks, and the cessation of these appears to still be an Iranian condition for peace.
And then, last night, the USA began bombing Iran again.
My reticence was justified.
Trump might know he needs peace in Iran. For his own domestic agenda, that is true. But he has no idea how to deliver it, and Netanyahu is determined to continue his war, which he believes is the only way in which he can secure his own re-election in the forthcoming general election in Israel.
The likelihood that the stalemate will continue in the Strait of Hormuz is, then, very high, and the probability that all the economic consequences of that, which I have already been explaining, will happen is as high.
I know that there is a desire for things to be otherwise, and that journalists, as a consequence, try to promote any hint of negotiation as if it is a real sign of a thaw, but unless Trump can embrace the possibility of having to back down, accept the reality of his own enormous strategic error in beginning this war, and seek peace, there is no prospect of it. As yet, Trump is nowhere near this position, not least because he knows Netanyahu is not either.
As a result, the world is still being held to ransom by these two fascist madmen, and I use those words advisedly.